Europe sanctions push risks final blow to Iran nuclear talks

BRUSSELS: European efforts to reactivate U.N. sanctions against Iran through a contested nuclear deal mechanism risk destroying remaining diplomatic channels, analysts warned on Wednesday, as key provisions of the 2015 agreement near expiration.

The Institute for Public Accuracy cited nuclear policy expert SinaToossi analysis arguing that invoking the snapback provision of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) could push Tehran toward permanent nuclear escalation.

The mechanism would automatically restore pre-2015 sanctions, unless United Nations Security Council members block it within 30 days.

Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, noted the move comes after Iran expelled International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in response to joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes earlier this year.

European demands for full monitoring access and disclosure of 60% enriched uranium stockpiles face resistance from a government that saw sanctions relief vanish following Washington 2018 JCPOA withdrawal.

The October 18 expiration of JCPOA limits on uranium enrichment adds urgency to the standoff.

Toossi warned in Responsible Statecraft that renewed sanctions could mirror past failures by hardening Tehran stance rather than forcing concessions, particularly given expected Russian and Chinese opposition to enforcement.

The 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers restricted Tehran nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

It began unraveling when the United States abandoned the deal despite verified Iranian compliance, with Europe failing to deliver promised economic benefits.

Toossi, who co-authored a 2020 study on U.S. sanctions’ humanitarian impacts, cautioned that inconsistent enforcement could erode U.N. authority while enabling Iran to deepen ties with non-Western partners.