Eskom power grid shows fragile gains as winter tests resilience

South Africa energy landscape remains on knife-edge as Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) dipped to 56.4% in April 2025, down from 57.5% the previous month, according to Minerals Council economists.

While the utility 2025 financial year, April 2024–March 2025 saw an improved EAF average of 61.2%—up from 54.9% in the prior year—the figure still falls far short of Eskom’s 70% target.

Unplanned breakdowns and razor-thin supply-demand margin of just 38 MW in April underscore the fragility of recent progress, with intermittent loads-shedding persisting to stabilise the grid.

Eskom winter outlook offers cautious optimism. The utility projects no load -Load-sheddingshedding if unplanned outages stay below 13,000 MW.

However, analysts warn that outages exceeding 15,000 MW could trigger up to 21 days of stage 2 blackouts, with weekend spikes risking higher stages to protect weekday supply.

André Lourens, a Minerals Council economist, notes that while unplanned outages have breached 13,000 MW four times in the past 13 months, they’ve never surpassed 14,000 MW—a trend suggesting Eskom’s winter assumptions are grounded but not immune to shocks.

Amid these challenges, Stats SA data reveals 1.2% year-on-year rise in electricity generation for March 2025, with Q1 2025 output growing 2.4% annually.

Yet paradoxically, Q1 production fell 2% compared to Q4 2024, signaling potential drags on GDP growth. Eskom own sales volumes climbed 3.6% in FY2025, buoyed by reduced load-shedding and increased exports—critical revenue lifeline for the cash-strapped utility.

The road ahead hinges on Eskom’s maintenance strides. Two Kusile units (1,600 MW) resumed operations in January, with a third set to add 800 MW soon.

Koeberg Unit 1 (930 MW) is back online, and Medupi Unit 4 (720 MW) is slated for a winter return.

These recoveries, paired with a 12.74% April tariff hike for direct customers, aim to stabilize the grid.

But with illegal connections forcing localised load curtailment and diesel reserves under scrutiny, South Africa power system enters winter 2025 stronger than recent years—yet still one major breakdown away from crisis.