US imposes 30% tariff on South African goods, threatens growth outlook

The Trump administration announced a 30% import levy on South African goods effective June 7, extending the implementation deadline to August 1.

Economic analysts at Euromonitor International warn the tariffs could slash South Africa’s real GDP growth to 1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027 – below baseline projections of 1.4% and 1.8% respectively under their total agenda scenario modelling.

South Africa export-driven economy faces heightened vulnerability, with overseas sales constituting 27.8% of GDP in 2024.

While trade partnerships span Africa, Europe, and Asia, the US accounts for 7.7% of exports – a critical market for automotive components, precious metals, and agricultural products.

The tariff hike risks reducing American demand for these goods while potentially triggering production relocations to bypass trade barriers.

Consultant Aiste Bijune notes manufacturers could face dual pressures, diminished export revenue and weakened investor confidence.

To mitigate risks, firms are advised to pivot toward alternative markets like the EU and African trade bloc partners, while streamlining operations and stimulating domestic consumption.

“The measures aim to counterbalance projected declines in industrial output and employment across key sectors,” added Bijune.